NEWSLETTER

What a week! I must be honest; at one point I was skeptical about even writing our usual quarterly update. If Goldman Sachs changes its economic view within an hour ...

Overconfidence, or the illusion of control, is one of the many pitfalls in behavioural finance that describes the tendency of...

The expected return is an estimate of the investment return at a specific maturity, based on all available information at a given point in time.

Over the past few weeks, volatility in financial markets has surged, as if investors suddenly recognized that the probability of recession in the coming months is greater than zero. The data that has most alarmed investors’ concerns the labour market.

Phase transitions. More or less what we think is currently happening in the US economy. Phase transitions is a term often used in chemistry (but not exclusively there) to describe the transformation of a substance from one state to another. 

Interest rates are one of the key variables for estimating the Intrinsic Value of the stock market and consequently its expected long-term return.

Those that have been lucky enough to live through the year 2000s tend to always expect the unexpected. It’s a matter of experience

The beginning of 2024 confirmed the trend observed in 2023, the performance of the US stock market is getting narrower by the day, indeed, after the past month we could redefine the S&P 500 and the “Magnificent 7” as the S&P5 and “Magnificent 5”. We explain our reasons below.