NEWSLETTER

“There are only patterns, patterns on top of patterns, patterns that affect other patters. Patterns hidden by patterns. Patterns within patterns. If you watch closely, history does nothing but repeat itself” – Charles Michael (Chuck) Palahniuk, novelist.

The FED's balance sheet after the outbreak of the COVID-19 grew significantly, as the central bank injected large amounts of liquidity into the market and the government offered important fiscal aid to citizens and businesses to support the economy. This injection of liquidity flowed into the bank deposits of businesses

“Breaking up is like knocking over a coke machine. You can’t do it in one push, you got to rock it back and forth a few times, and then it goes over” – J. Seinfeld.

We don’t know how much the comedian Jerry Seinfeld knows about macroeconomics and the makings of recessions

The market is actually pricing an average scenario, is not pricing a recession, is not pricing a growth resumption of the economy. It is very undecided, and every new coming data will clarify the market picture and will indicate the market direction.

Market uncertainty can be seen in the first chart that shows the Global PMI (The Purchasing Managers' Index consists

The current macroeconomic scenario remains rather uncertain looking ahead to the coming months as the economy does not seem to have taken a concrete direction on which to base future economic forecasts. In fact, by analysing different themes, we can see that the economic indicators are not aligned in signalling a market direction.

The final quarter of 2022 delivered an early Christmas for investors; two consecutive inflation prints below-expectations were seen as the prelude to the Federal Reserve (FED) adopting a softer stance in its monetary policy. Interest rates fell over the course of the quarter, and equities rose sharply.

In this market environment, investors seem to have already discounted a possible recession in the coming months, in fact, as the chart below suggests, the probability of a recession in the coming quarters is at its highest value since the data were collected.