INSIGHTS

The final quarter of 2022 delivered an early Christmas for investors; two consecutive inflation prints below-expectations were seen as the prelude to the Federal Reserve (FED) adopting a softer stance in its monetary policy. Interest rates fell over the course of the quarter, and equities rose sharply.

In this market environment, investors seem to have already discounted a possible recession in the coming months, in fact, as the chart below suggests, the probability of a recession in the coming quarters is at its highest value since the data were collected.